Thursday, April 2, 2009

2009 New York Mets Season Preview: It Can't Happen Again, Right? Right?

Photobucket

You couldn't blame Mets fans for being as cynical about the 2009 season as the American public is about the current economy. But after a winter of second-guessing, what ifs, self-loathing, trades and signings, we're ready to go.

The main issue addressed in the off-season was the downfall of the last 2 Septembers. As big as the signings of K-Rod and J.J. Putz were, the execution of Scott Schoeneweis, Aaron Heilman, Joe Smith, Duaner Sanchez and Luis Ayala were just as huge.

Now I could rehash their greatest hits and how they almost drove me to raging alcoholism, but it's a new year.

The big knock on K-Rod is that his arm is due to go Dave Dravecky after 62 saves in 76 appearences last season. I would point out however that he did not have a single 4+ out save last season. Also, it's worth noting that giving K-Rod 3 years/$37 mil at 27 is vastly different than giving Billy Wagner 4 years/$ 43 mil at 34. The fact that Omar was able to shave 2 years and $38 mil off the initial figures Rodriguez was looking at last July is quite impressive. It also makes the Putz trade even more brilliant in hindsight as they have an all-star caliber closer as a set-up man and ace in the hole should Frankie's arm fail him.

It's a little unnerving that the Mets are going into battle this season attempting to take down the lefty-heavy Phillies with just one lefty reliever, who I might add has exactly ONE pitch, but yet I do not fear. The lone bright spot in the tire fire that was the bullpen was Brian Stokes. While the term "crossover reliever" is very LaRussa-esque and makes me cringe, Stokes fits the term to a T as he was effecttive against hitters on both sides of the plate. If 2008 was more of a trend than an accident, not only does that give Jerry a reliable option against lefties (let's face it, Feliciano has been a crap shoot for a year and a half now), it also gives him their 7th inning option.

The rotation is obviously set at the top by The Left Arm Of God and potential in the spots behind him.

Mike Pelfrey showed promise in the 2nd half and become the most sure thing behind Johan and Delgado, but had a shaky spring and the big concern is how he will hold up after pitching 200 innings for the first time in his career, my gut feeling says he'll be fine. When it clicks, it clicks and Pelfrey seemed to develop a confidence last year that we hadn't seen before, the belief that he belonged as a major league starter. When you have the confidence to match the stuff, you're ready to go.

The main reason I believe the Mets signed Oliver Perez this offseason was the sole belief that better for him be on their side if/when he gets it than with somebody else. I'd say he's due to break through this year, but I said that last year too, so search me.

John Maine could be the usual solid #3 if he's healthy. It's a must that he develops his curveball in order for him to get his pitch count down, which is the only thing that has inhibited him as a starter.

Only real changes to the lineup are Luis Castillo tentaively hitting 8th and Daniel Murphy winning the starting job in left. I'm a big fan of what Murph did down the stretch last season. He won't go for a lot of power, but in this lineup, he doesn't have to. His role is to be on base to set up Wright/Delgado/Beltran, not to mention with the quality pitch selection and ability to go opposite field is a huge plus as a #2 hitter with Reyes on base.

I don't expect Carlos Delgado to unleash the '03 version of himself as he did for the final 2 and a half months last season, but a .272/27/96 shouldn't be too much of a reach.

This is David Wright's year to become the leader that we've been waiting for him to be, both on the field and in the clubhouse. True, he may have caught a little too much heat for the strikeout against the Cubs on the final Wednesday (myself included), but more than ever this team needs that Jeter-like influence and Wright has that ability, it's time for him to flex that muscle.

Of course, there is the dirty little secret that should all else fail, the small-market teams will be shedding salary like it's going out of style at the trade deadline. Damn, I feel like a Yankee fan just talking like that. Economic disaster.....catch the excitement!

The New York media has already started the rumblings of Jerry Manuel being fired if the Mets do not make the playoffs again, which to me is propestorous. If the bullpen doesn't trip over itself last year, we'd be talking about one of the greatest turnaround jobs in baseball history. Jerry was able to bring some sense of stability to a team that had been missing it for a long time. With a structured bullpen seemingly in palce (key word: seemingly), Manuel doesn't have to spend the entire game wondering how he eventually has to juggle the pen. Given the circumstances, I think Jerry handled himself quite well, which makes me all the more confident in what he'll do this season.

Prediction: uhhhhhhhhhhhh, you really don't expect me to do that?

No comments: